The hottest rumors of production reduction are hot

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Rumors of production reduction are hot, and LLDPE futures have risen by the limit

affected by the continuous decline in crude oil prices, LLDPE futures have been "all bad" since August, and the market price has continued to fall below the cost price. Yesterday, as soon as the rumors of PetroChina and Sinopec reducing production emerged, bulls took the opportunity to raise LLDPE futures to the limit. On the same day, the main contract of LLDPE 901 opened at 12795 yuan/ton, with an intraday minimum of 12780 yuan/ton, and finally closed at the daily limit of 13205 yuan/ton. It is understood that the news of PetroChina and Sinopec reducing the production of linear plastics has been reported as early as June. Why did the market react so strongly yesterday

"the rumors of PetroChina and Sinopec reducing the production of plastics and other downstream products are 'write down the output control signal value and stir up again with cold rice'. This rise is highly suspected of speculation about the rumors of production reduction, and the real reason behind it is the early LLDPE price oversold." Qi Junjie, a senior analyst at spot, said. According to her introduction, at present, only Qilu Petrochemical has stopped production in the market until the end of the month, and Tianjin has jointly reduced production (by about 100 tons), while other plants such as Yangzi Petrochemical are unlikely to reduce production. The main reason for Sinopec's production reduction is full capacity production in the early stage, which is to reduce production to alleviate the pressure of large inventory. She also said that what cannot be ignored in the future is that due to the rise in prices, Sinopec may cancel the policy of reducing plastic production. Since July 15, international crude oil has shouldered the "flag" of commodity futures decline, falling from the high price of $147/barrel to $113/barrel. What will LLDPE, as a downstream product of crude oil, be affected? Qi Junjie believes that the impact of the collapse of crude oil prices on the ex factory price of downstream products is mainly reflected in the psychological level. At present, commodity futures prices are in an uncertain state, and the impact of falling oil prices on downstream product prices has not appeared. As China mainly relies on imported crude oil to produce plastics, the initial cost is high, and Sinopec has serious losses, which can only be made up by adjusting the downstream product prices to meet the requirements of PE double arm bellows, winding pipes and various pipe standards

in terms of average spot value, Jilin Petrochemical LLDPE unit produces 7042, the latest price of membrane material is 12800 yuan/ton, and the powder material is 12400 yuan/ton; Maoming Petrochemical LLDPE plant produces 7042, with membrane material of 12600 yuan/ton and powder material of 12500 yuan/ton; Guangzhou Petrochemical LLDPE plant produces 7042 at a price of 12650 yuan/ton. At present, the fine operation of Sinopec's employees is the key factory quotation for low iron and aluminum production. Qi Junjie believes that this price is relatively false. "According to the experience of previous years, August is the peak season of agricultural film production, and the manufacturers have begun to prepare materials for production. However, due to the restrictions of power restriction policy and transportation bottleneck in North China, the demand is not strong. At present, downstream manufacturers basically have no inventory in their hands, and they can use as they purchase. However, the inventory pressure of Sinopec cannot be ignored, and the amount of production reduction is still small relative to a large amount of inventory. In particular, it is worth mentioning that we should pay attention to the mentality and Traders' hype ability. "

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