Overview and future forecast of the hottest produc

2022-07-27
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Product oil market overview and future forecast (August 23-31)

the first hurricane "Dean" of the Atlantic hurricane season this week hit the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. European and American oil and gas companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico withdrew their staff from offshore platforms and reduced production on a small scale

the high temperature and sauna weather swept most parts of China again this week. The demand for oil for air conditioning, power generation, engineering construction, transportation and so on remained stable and rising. The shortage of refined oil resources continued. As there was no sign of improvement in the near future, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market was very prominent. This week, the rumor of price adjustment has disappeared, and the government's price inspection has been carried out in various places. The two groups insist on controlling the wholesale and direct sales, and mainly guarantee the retail sales. The operating space of social units is limited, and the awareness of social units to store oil is gradually rising

recent market factors

(1) gradual evolution of consumption structure

the structure of market consumption varieties changed slightly this week: gasoline consumption was slightly reduced due to the fall of temperature in most parts of China, but the high passenger flow caused by students' return to school and business activities made gasoline retail roughly the same as last week; Diesel consumption gradually increased out of the off-season. The construction unit took advantage of the cool weather to complete the scheduled production target before the national day. The "three autumn" and fishery production in southern China began, and the retail consumption of diesel increased month on month. This week, the stock of social gas stations and large terminal households in most parts of China has been basically exhausted, and the demand for replenishment and stock up is gradually starting

in recent months, the government of Inner Mongolia has increased the supervision and audit of various mines, which has made many mines unable to open, and the overall demand for diesel oil has decreased. Shanxi has implemented the "blue sky and clear clouds" project, intensified environmental governance, and closed down 80% of iron mills and some mining enterprises. Traffic control has been adopted in Beijing. Vehicles on the road are restricted according to the first project of single and double numbers, and the daily traffic flow is 1.3 million less than usual. Similar factors have reduced the demand for diesel.

(2) Retail competition becomes the focus

with the shrinking of the wholesale market, the retail and direct sales market has become the focus of competition. PetroChina in North China continued to strengthen its efforts to develop customers. In addition to 1% discount for refueling with cards and 3% discount for central and state organs, for some customers with large sales volume, 0.1 yuan per liter can be offered, and they can also settle accounts at the end of the month, attracting more customers. PetroChina adopts the strategy of parallel sales of 0diesel and +5diesel in diesel sales. Sinochem total gas station will continue to carry out promotional activities, add 100 yuan of oil products to send 1 can of coke, and give a discount of 0.05 yuan to key customers. The social station also does not show that the physical and mechanical performance tests of plastic film, rubber, wire and cable and other materials are weak for material development, and diesel oil is distributed to coal mines, iron mines and industrial and mining enterprises

(3) the production mood of refineries is flat

the slight drop in crude oil prices is difficult to change the dilemma of upside down of refinery sales. Due to the lack of enthusiasm for production, refineries have increased refining, the export has been completed at full load, or they have entered into maintenance. The operating rate is insufficient. They have entered into maintenance, the operating rate has decreased, and the market has been reduced

(4) resources are tight and uneven

at present, it is the peak of passenger transport in summer. The railway department protects passengers and goods, and the shipping flow direction of the refinery and the number of tank cars are limited, which directly affects the progress of resource arrival of the main business units. The situation of "insufficient total resources and prominent contradiction between supply and demand" runs through the month

this month, there were many overhauls in PetroChina northeast refinery, which seriously affected PetroChina's resource investment in North China to a certain extent. Fortunately, PetroChina's resources were relieved recently after the completion of the external pipeline transportation of 641 refinery. This month, affected by the transportation bottleneck, the scarcity of outsourcing resources and high prices, Sinopec had difficulty in fulfilling the gasoline allocation and purchasing plan, and its inventory was relatively weak. In particular, since last week, Sinopec's own gas stations began to limit the supply of 93 gasoline, and 20% of the gasoline in gas stations was out of stock. Shanxi Sinopec gasoline inventory has been below the minimum warning line. The situation of diesel resources is generally slightly better than that of gasoline. The direct selling price is 5350 yuan/ton, and the contract customers are mainly guaranteed. However, the national standard 0e diesel resources in Zhangjiakou and Chengde regions of Hebei market are becoming tighter, and the gas stations in some regions are out of stock

this week, resources in Central China were diversified. On the one hand, due to the impact of Typhoon "SEPA", the flood disaster is more serious, and the demand for gasoline and diesel oil has decreased as a whole. On the one hand, the arrival of oil products is seriously restricted by poor transportation. Among them, the overall resources of Sinopec 93 in Hunan are in short supply, especially in the six regions of Changzhutan, Hengyang, Chenzhou and Changde. Because the company failed to allocate 10000 tons of diesel oil in Jiujiang refinery, it plans to supplement the diesel oil allocation gap in the form of oil collection and storage, but there are considerable difficulties. The delivery of gasoline and diesel oil in Changling baling refinery is not good, especially the delayed delivery of 97 resources, which has caused a shortage of supply in Sinopec Ji'an, Ganzhou, Yichun, Xinyu and other regions, forcing Sinopec to implement the plan in Jinling Yangtze. However, up to now, the shortage is large. However, the resources of PetroChina Hunan began to ease. Recently, there was a pressure trough in the arrival of diesel oil in Shaoyang distribution center. In Enshi region, PetroChina gas stations have sufficient diesel resources, and a discount of 0.05 yuan per liter will be offered to major customers who fill vehicles and barrels. CNPC gas stations in Jingmen area offer a discount of 0.05 yuan/liter for gasoline and diesel oil to large users

this week, the southeast coast was affected by the periphery of Typhoon No. 8 "Butterfly", and the speed of going into the sea slowed down, which had a great impact on the transportation of refined oil in coastal areas such as Zhejiang and Fujian. The physical inventory of Sinopec in East China decreased rapidly, especially the gasoline inventory, of which 90\\\\\\\\\\. The allocation plan of E90 blended component oil and 93\clean gasoline of Sinopec Jiangsu is insufficient, there are few mobile resources in the market, and the phenomenon of shutdown and restriction of supply at social stations is common. Anhui Sinopec's gasoline and diesel physical inventory continued to decrease month on month. The gas stations in some regions of CNPC and the BP service stations of CNPC control the retail sales. The oversold area of social service stations has narrowed, but there is still the phenomenon of reducing supply and stopping supply

(5) business units control sales and maintain zero

this week, the business principles of the two groups remained unchanged: first, strengthen communication with government departments, standardize price implementation, cooperate with the inspection work of price departments at all levels, put appropriate resources into social gas stations, and strictly implement the wholesale and retail deduction rate; Second, the sales price of each product number shall be set according to the principle of interaction between volume and price, so as to reduce the amount of resources put into the society, limit the wholesale and retail sales, and appropriately increase the price promotion of 93 and 0diesel in East China and other places; Third, East China, South China and central China began to implement the in place price of diesel additives, and strive to improve operating efficiency

(6) price inspection is in full swing

this week, national price inspection, including oil prices, is being carried out in an all-round way. The two major groups insist on price stability, but fully control wholesale and even direct sales, and mainly guarantee retail

(7) social units are struggling

recently, it has become more and more difficult for social units to purchase from the main business units, the zero price difference has basically disappeared, and the retail losses have increased. The only way out is to seek low-cost resources in the north. It is reported that more than 200 of the 660 private wholesale enterprises in China are closing down due to operational difficulties. After the issuance of the notice on improving the supply of refined oil market and strengthening price management by the national development and Reform Commission, enterprise gas stations can "ask for food" from the two major oil groups by virtue of this golden sword. However, due to the scarcity of resources, the two groups are too busy

(8) the rise of smuggled oil

recently, smuggled oil has shown signs of rising, mainly concentrated in Zhongshan and Huizhou Areas in South China. The number of smuggled oil in Zhongshan area has increased. The red oil smuggled in Zhongshan area is 800 tons ashore every day (the price is 5250 yuan/ton), impacting the local refined oil market. In addition, due to the decline of the international oil price, the ex factory price of Shandong local refined oil generally fell, and the non-standard oil in Guangdong increased, and the price decreased compared with last week. At present, the price of non-standard oil is 5100 yuan/ton ~ 5300 yuan/ton, down 50 ~ 80 yuan/ton compared with last week

(9) local refining prices fluctuated

this week, 90 pp of northeast yushutun chemical plant was temporarily suspended, and 93 pp of Lamadian chemical plant rose to 5620 yuan/ton. The price of gasoline and diesel from Shandong local refinery fell steadily by yuan. The mainstream price was 90gasoline yuan/ton, 93gasoline yuan/ton, and 0diesel yuan/ton. The price of gasoline was the same as last week, and the lower limit of diesel price fell by 60 yuan. The price of 90 # gasoline and +5 # diesel oil for the Northern Shaanxi local refining railway is 5400 yuan/ton and 5050 yuan/ton respectively. Yanlian highway 90 gasoline 5300 yuan/ton, 93 gasoline 5650 yuan/ton, +5 diesel 5030 yuan/ton. Yongping refinery highway 90 gasoline 5250 yuan/ton, +5 diesel 5110 yuan/ton. Yulin refinery highway 90 gasoline 5320 yuan/ton, +5diesel 5210 yuan/ton. The reasons for the price fluctuation are as follows: ① in North China, South China, East China and other regions, the main businesses are frequently stopped, approved and guaranteed, and the purchase of resources is difficult to find. Some competent operators have turned to purchasing Shaanxi local refining resources, resulting in the scarcity of local resources. ② Due to the increase of production cost, the enthusiasm of local refineries to start operation decreased. Among them, Shaanxi Yongping plant was overhauled and gasoline production was stopped. ③ The refineries in Northeast China have been overhauled one after another, and there is not much market investment. ④ Recently, the international oil price has fluctuated widely, and social users have a certain wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. Due to the difficulty of shipping, Shandong local refining resources have suffered a slight decline in the quotation due to poor railway transportation

(10) high oil prices delay the start of reserves

Huangdao is one of the first batch of strategic oil reserve bases in China. 5) overload protection: when the load exceeds 3.5% of the maximum value of each gear, it is one of the places. At present, due to the high oil price, the oil reserve base will not be put into use for the time being. China started the strategic oil reserve plan in 2005. The first batch of strategic oil reserves include Ningbo, Zhoushan, Huangdao and Dalian. The reserve capacity of each base reaches 10million-12million tons

later market forecast

in September, with the completion of maintenance of some production enterprises, the crude oil processing volume will rise to a high level. It is expected that the offshore resources in September will increase compared with August, and the areas with insufficient resource supply are expected to be gradually relieved in September. As the temperature continues to drop in autumn, the gasoline terminal demand will gradually fall back from the annual peak. However, during the golden week in October, the booming tourism will push the gasoline consumption to a short peak. The third quarter is the peak production season for the fishery, transportation and construction industries. Diesel consumption will enter the annual golden season. In the case that China's production diesel gasoline ratio does not match the consumption diesel gasoline ratio, the supply pressure of diesel will gradually increase. In particular, agricultural oil will form supply pressure in a short period of time, which is worthy of market attention. At present, it is a good time to stock up. The nationwide price inspection will exert a rigid pressure on the rise of gasoline and diesel prices. In this case, the two groups should continue to control sales, promote direct selling prices, stop wholesale, and advocate retail. Therefore, there is little room for social units' activities, and the profit space is limited

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